Model Simulations Don’t Match the Average Surface Temperature of the Earth.

Model Simulations Don’t Match the Average Surface Temperature of the Earth.

2 March, 2009 (10:58) | Data Comparisons Written by: lucia

This morning, Alexander Harvey asked,

“I would really like to see the temperature records (we have more than one world it seems) expressed in absolute terms and comparison between them and the model outputs performed in absolute terms.I do not know if the spread in the CMIP3 data is as broad as I have not seen the data expressed in absolute terms.”

I show the 12 month average temperatures from simulations and GISSTemp in non-anomaly degrees C.

Figure: IPCC Model Simulations Prediction of Earth Surface Temperature

To create the GISSTemp (i.e. measured) value, I added 14 C, which GISSTemp reports as the best estimate for the average temperature from 1951-1980. The GISSTemp value is shown in dark blue.

The remaining traces based on model-run-data downloaded from The Climate Explorer.

If anyone knows the baseline temperature for HadCrut, point me to it, and I’ll add HadCrut.

If most the models were correct, the coal-protestors would in DC would probably be even colder today. Alas, most the models are unable to predict the average global surface temperature.

Note that the UK Met office did not include this information when trying to support their claimed.

http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/fact-6a-model-simulations-dont-match-average-surface-temperature-of-the-earth/